Published evidence dashboard

Findings

Every card shows observed outcomes, the published estimate the engine contradicted, the divergence, and the cross-validation chain. Confirmed findings replicate across two independent datasets. Exploratory findings appear on a single dataset and are timestamped on OSF pending replication.

Confirmed · replicated on two datasets Exploratory · single dataset, OSF-timestamped Pipeline · identified, under validation
Confirmed

Cross-validated across two independent datasets

· 6 findings
Myocardial Infarction × Age > 70
Discovery ID: RSD-2026-MI-ELD-001
Confirmed
Observed
21.5%
Published
8.0%
Divergence
+168.4%
MIMIC-IVn = 8,914 · 1,916 deaths
eICU-CRD confirmationn = 12,408 · mortality 21.1%
Evidence hash0x7a4e3f19c8d2fd44c21b
OSF timestamp2026-03-14T17:22Z
Evidence chain
Diabetes × Age > 70
Discovery ID: RSD-2026-DM-ELD-002
Confirmed
Observed
13.9%
Published
6.0%
Divergence
+131.7%
MIMIC-IVn = 14,210 · 1,975 deaths
eICU-CRD confirmationn = 19,602 · mortality 13.4%
Evidence hash0xb8d0c21fe4aa91e3770a
OSF timestamp2026-03-16T09:44Z
Evidence chain
  • Pre-registrationosf.io/rsd-dm-elderly
  • Discovery timestamp2026-03-16 09:44:11 UTC
  • Analysis runcontradiction_engine v2.4 · novelty 0.89
  • Replication dataseteICU-CRD 2.0
Atrial Fibrillation × Age > 70
Discovery ID: RSD-2026-AF-ELD-003
Confirmed
Observed
16.6%
Published
10.0%
Divergence
+66.3%
MIMIC-IVn = 11,704 · 1,943 deaths
eICU-CRD confirmationn = 17,221 · mortality 16.2%
Evidence hash0x3c2a99b41e5fc08d44e2
OSF timestamp2026-03-18T14:05Z
Evidence chain
Seizure × Age > 70
Discovery ID: RSD-2026-SZ-ELD-004
Confirmed
Observed
45.8%
Published
7.5%
Divergence
+510.2%
MIMIC-IVn = 3,102 · 1,421 deaths
eICU-CRD confirmationn = 4,880 · mortality 44.9%
Evidence hash0xf91e7a2d0c4488ab3e01
OSF timestamp2026-03-20T11:17Z
Evidence chain
  • Pre-registrationosf.io/rsd-seizure-elderly
  • Analysis runcontradiction_engine v2.4 · novelty 0.98
  • NoteHighest-divergence finding in the series; largest public-literature gap.
Pulmonary Embolism × Age > 70
Discovery ID: RSD-2026-PE-ELD-005
Confirmed
Observed
23.0%
Published
11.5%
Divergence
+99.6%
MIMIC-IVn = 5,812 · 1,337 deaths
eICU-CRD confirmationn = 8,145 · mortality 22.7%
Evidence hash0x2d4b11caef00977ac118
OSF timestamp2026-03-22T08:33Z
Evidence chain
COPD × Age < 50
Discovery ID: RSD-2026-COPD-YNG-006
Confirmed
Observed
4.0%
Published
11.0%
Divergence
−63.6%
MIMIC-IVn = 1,802 · 72 deaths
eICU-CRD confirmationn = 2,645 · mortality 4.2%
Evidence hash0x551ea90fc3d8611190cb
OSF timestamp2026-03-25T20:48Z
Evidence chain
  • Pre-registrationosf.io/rsd-copd-young
  • Analysis runcontradiction_engine v2.4 · novelty 0.88
  • NotePublished estimates overstate risk; may reflect selection bias in older COPD cohorts.
Exploratory

Single dataset · OSF-timestamped · replication pending

· 4 findings
T2DM — Young Adult Mortality Doubling (Temporal)
Discovery ID: RSD-2026-T2DM-YNG-E01
Exploratory
SignalICU mortality for T2DM <50 has doubled 2012→2023 in MIMIC-IV.
MIMIC-IVearly-era 2.1% · late-era 4.3%
ReplicationeICU coverage ends 2015 · pending external cohort
OSF timestamp2026-04-02T07:10Z
PE — Elderly Mortality Doubling (Temporal)
Discovery ID: RSD-2026-PE-TMP-E02
Exploratory
SignalElderly PE ICU mortality ↑ 11% → 23% (MIMIC-IV 2010→2023).
ReplicationExternal cohort pending
OSF timestamp2026-04-04T15:21Z
ARDS — Elderly Survival Flip
Discovery ID: RSD-2026-ARDS-ELD-E03
Exploratory
SignalPublished risk curve flips direction for elderly in MIMIC-IV subgroup.
ReplicationRequires independent cohort stratified by ventilation strategy
OSF timestamp2026-04-06T10:02Z
Vasopressor Liberal-Use Signal
Discovery ID: RSD-2026-VAS-LIB-E04
Exploratory
SignalLiberal-threshold vasopressor use associates with higher 30-day mortality in septic shock, opposite to guideline intuition.
ReplicationExternal cohort + IV analysis pending
OSF timestamp2026-04-11T18:55Z
Pipeline

Identified · under validation · not yet publishable

· 89 findings

The engine surfaces approximately 89 additional candidate contradictions currently moving through the twin-consensus validation queue. These are not listed publicly until they pass internal adversarial review, receive a pre-registration OSF stamp, and clear a replication check. Partners and licensees see the full pipeline inside the client portal.

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